Is Captain David Miscavige’s Claim of 6601 Sea Org Members Real? Or Are There Far Fewer?

[onceuponatime]

From over at Mike Rinder's Thursday Funnies, here's presumably all the staff and public that they could gather in the SF org at some point recently:

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Not looking so good. I'm sure all orgs are going to be under tremendous pressure to get people back in and revert stats. I think for the past couple years many orgs were basically given a free pass because of the pandemic and protocols. Now they don't have that excuse, I bet management is giving them insane targets.

 

[La La Lou Lou]

Just a thought about the number of scientologists world wide.
Outer orgs have their mailing list, usually very backlogged. This gives a nice fat number. Back in the seventies London Org's mailing list was 19,000, mostly address unknown book buyers. The other UK Orgs would have another mailing list. Some of these would be duplicates, people who had been 'on lines' at more than one Org, HAPI and SH Foundation for example. Often one person might have three different addresses, Londoners move around a lot. Mr W Smith, William Smith and Bill Smith might not be three different people, or they could be, there was never enough information to work it out.

Saint Hill's mailing list consisted of all the UK Orgs' mailing lists added together plus any public who had been to Saint Hill maybe from Europe America or Australia.
EU would have similar lists of duplicated address unknowns. As would all the other continents.
But on top of this I know people who had phone calls from America, so UK mailing lists were shared with other areas.

This means the amount of duplications must be enormous.

Even if someone is ''address unknown '' in Sunderland doesn't mean he's not getting mail from Saint Hill and AOEU and Flag and who knows where else.

This means that top management can boast a huge mailing list, composed mainly of people who were students thirty years before, who bought a book from the test line, and never read it, moved five times since and do not get any of the tons of mail they had been so generously provided with.

 

[Reyne Mayer]

Outer orgs have their mailing list, usually very backlogged. This gives a nice fat number.

some of the orgs in big cities have CFs in the ballpark of 100k, partly as the result of absorbing defunct missions. that's got to be how they get to claims of 'millions'.

i think i've heard Chris Shelton cite the master mailing list at some management org in LA being around a quarter million, which i think would fit with the number of people who have ever held an IAS membership.

my reality check is to consider that of the 140 or so local orgs, all the current photographic evidence is that most can't get even 100 people to show up for their largest gatherings. accounting for a few thousand people in LA and CW served exclusively by higher level orgs, i think that puts the realistic active membership around 15k, if even that now.

parsing some of the CoS claims, i suspect they have about 30k current IAS members, probably many of those people who bought lifetime memberships long ago but are no longer active.

 

[HelluvaHoax!]

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some of the orgs in big cities have CFs in the ballpark of 100k, partly as the result of absorbing defunct missions. that's got to be how they get to claims of 'millions'.

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The largest volume of defunct missions may have been when all the Scientology centers in African American neighborhoods suddenly closed. This happened moments after Isaac Hayes got defunked and began singing "We Stand Tall".

.

 

[Enthetan]

parsing some of the CoS claims, i suspect they have about 30k current IAS members, probably many of those people who bought lifetime memberships long ago but are no longer active.

I bought an IAS lifetime membership. I might be on their stat still.

Really, the only meaningful stat would be: people who did a major service in the last three years or so, or who are currently on staff in some meaningful way.

 

[Reyne Mayer]

I bought an IAS lifetime membership. I might be on their stat still.

Really, the only meaningful stat would be: people who did a major service in the last three years or so, or who are currently on staff in some meaningful way.

i meant to qualify it as, probably IAS members in good standing. if it is around 30k i think that means they at least have to have removed the deceased from the current rolls, but who knows if they've further reduced their count and 'stat' by taking off those formally declared, or not technically in good standing, or whatever.

i've seen indications they (still) keep meaningful stats like of those who actively do services within a given period. but those must be closely guarded secrets; i've heard nothing of what actual numbers might be, and i'm guessing they're making sure that the inconvenient truth doesn't get out by using NDAs and payoff agreements with any who leaves who was at a high enough level to know such things. though that's one of the numbers i wish we could at least get for a couple of local orgs; with a good enough sample we could then extrapolate.

 

[onceuponatime]

some of the orgs in big cities have CFs in the ballpark of 100k, partly as the result of absorbing defunct missions. that's got to be how they get to claims of 'millions'.

i think i've heard Chris Shelton cite the master mailing list at some management org in LA being around a quarter million, which i think would fit with the number of people who have ever held an IAS membership.

my reality check is to consider that of the 140 or so local orgs, all the current photographic evidence is that most can't get even 100 people to show up for their largest gatherings. accounting for a few thousand people in LA and CW served exclusively by higher level orgs, i think that puts the realistic active membership around 15k, if even that now.

parsing some of the CoS claims, i suspect they have about 30k current IAS members, probably many of those people who bought lifetime memberships long ago but are no longer active.

I think a CF of 100K would be rare, even in the bigger cities. I'd be surprised if more than a few orgs had a CF that big. LA for a long time had way more Scientologists than anywhere else so I'm sure some of those orgs have a big CF, but those orgs are the exception. I'm not sure what the average CF size is for an org, but I'd guess way under 100K, 50K? 30K? less? It's also a meaningless stat, most of those names are just someone who bought a book 30 years ago.

Before the pandemic I thought Scientology numbers were 20K-25K, maybe 30K on the high side but not more than that. It's hard to say how many they lost exactly, and how many they'll be able to get back now that they're open. I think an estimate of 15K is a good guess. If they're claiming 30K IAS members the real number is half of that at best.

I bought an IAS lifetime membership. I might be on their stat still.

Really, the only meaningful stat would be: people who did a major service in the last three years or so, or who are currently on staff in some meaningful way.

I think the stat should be something along the lines of who has completed a course (any course) in the last 3 years and how many staff/SO. A large number of OTs go back to Div 6 to do the various book/lecture courses so if you start looking at only those who have done major services you're going to miss a lot of them. Maybe something along the lines of who has consistently been at a roll call would work.

i meant to qualify it as, probably IAS members in good standing. if it is around 30k i think that means they at least have to have removed the deceased from the current rolls, but who knows if they've further reduced their count and 'stat' by taking off those formally declared, or not technically in good standing, or whatever.

i've seen indications they (still) keep meaningful stats like of those who actively do services within a given period. but those must be closely guarded secrets; i've heard nothing of what actual numbers might be, and i'm guessing they're making sure that the inconvenient truth doesn't get out by using NDAs and payoff agreements with any who leaves who was at a high enough level to know such things. though that's one of the numbers i wish we could at least get for a couple of local orgs; with a good enough sample we could then extrapolate.

I've thought about it a little bit, I'm sure someone in management knows the numbers and at least has a good idea of how things are, but I'm not sure that even they have an accurate count. The main stats I think they'd watch as far as number of Scientologists would be number of staff/SO, BIS and event attendance. Number of staff/SO and event attendance they probably have accurate counts on, but I'm not sure they have an accurate count on BIS. When stats get reported uplines they just report numbers and each org reports its own stats. So for a D & F they might report up 200 each for BIS. Now management thinks Org X has 400 BIS. But really there is a lot of crossover, nothing prevents someone from being BIS at both orgs, so 100 of that 200 are on course at both orgs. The real weekly BIS for the org is 300. I'm not sure that Scientology is smart enough to track things like sign-ups, completions, etc. to get the real count. If they're tracking BIS just based on reports from orgs, and BIS is an average of 10K or whatever, I wouldn't be shocked that if you started to dig into that 10K number you'd find out it's really 7K or something.

 

[La La Lou Lou]

I think a CF of 100K would be rare, even in the bigger cities. I'd be surprised if more than a few orgs had a CF that big. LA for a long time had way more Scientologists than anywhere else so I'm sure some of those orgs have a big CF, but those orgs are the exception. I'm not sure what the average CF size is for an org, but I'd guess way under 100K, 50K? 30K? less? It's also a meaningless stat, most of those names are just someone who bought a book 30 years ago.

Before the pandemic I thought Scientology numbers were 20K-25K, maybe 30K on the high side but not more than that. It's hard to say how many they lost exactly, and how many they'll be able to get back now that they're open. I think an estimate of 15K is a good guess. If they're claiming 30K IAS members the real number is half of that at best.



I think the stat should be something along the lines of who has completed a course (any course) in the last 3 years and how many staff/SO. A large number of OTs go back to Div 6 to do the various book/lecture courses so if you start looking at only those who have done major services you're going to miss a lot of them. Maybe something along the lines of who has consistently been at a roll call would work.



I've thought about it a little bit, I'm sure someone in management knows the numbers and at least has a good idea of how things are, but I'm not sure that even they have an accurate count. The main stats I think they'd watch as far as number of Scientologists would be number of staff/SO, BIS and event attendance. Number of staff/SO and event attendance they probably have accurate counts on, but I'm not sure they have an accurate count on BIS. When stats get reported uplines they just report numbers and each org reports its own stats. So for a D & F they might report up 200 each for BIS. Now management thinks Org X has 400 BIS. But really there is a lot of crossover, nothing prevents someone from being BIS at both orgs, so 100 of that 200 are on course at both orgs. The real weekly BIS for the org is 300. I'm not sure that Scientology is smart enough to track things like sign-ups, completions, etc. to get the real count. If they're tracking BIS just based on reports from orgs, and BIS is an average of 10K or whatever, I wouldn't be shocked that if you started to dig into that 10K number you'd find out it's really 7K or something.

In London, and I think in other UK orgs the bodies in the shop figure included people doing tests or even popping in for a wee. Many a Wednesday night the org was filled with bored Taxi drivers, homeless people ladies of the night and their pimps. It was the easiest stat to push up.

 

[Reyne Mayer]

I think a CF of 100K would be rare, even in the bigger cities.

that's the size Chicago was citing not long ago when the were doing their CF project. i can't remember whether it was fact or conjecture, that 15k to 20k of those had come from the old Peoria mission. plus there other missions in the metro area, state and region whose folders they'd probably gotten too. but they still must have had a lot to begin with, i'm guessing going back to when they were close to Northwestern and some other university campus and probably had a lot of names from brief contacts with students including on-campus recruiting attempts; plus come to think of it there was a Champlain-Urbana mission that had been close to the huge UI campus.

from what i remember of other recent CF projects they were in the range of 15k to 30k; but also the recent orgs to reach that stage have generally been smaller ones, so at least 50k might not be out of line for CF in a big city org where scn was at least once fairly active.

this alone might have delayed the opening of the org for 2 years; no way they got as many people working as long hours as they were hoping for:

 

[onceuponatime]

that's the size Chicago was citing not long ago when the were doing their CF project. i can't remember whether it was fact or conjecture, that 15k to 20k of those had come from the old Peoria mission. plus there other missions in the metro area, state and region whose folders they'd probably gotten too. but they still must have had a lot to begin with, i'm guessing going back to when they were close to Northwestern and some other university campus and probably had a lot of names from brief contacts with students including on-campus recruiting attempts; plus come to think of it there was a Champlain-Urbana mission that had been close to the huge UI campus.

from what i remember of other recent CF projects they were in the range of 15k to 30k; but also the recent orgs to reach that stage have generally been smaller ones, so at least 50k might not be out of line for CF in a big city org where scn was at least once fairly active.

this alone might have delayed the opening of the org for 2 years; no way they got as many people working as long hours as they were hoping for:

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View attachment 18730

I'd guess you're right with Chicago CF absorbing other CFs. I'm actually a little surprised their CF is that big, you'd think they'd be one of the bigger orgs with a CF that size. It goes to show how meaningless and useless CF actually is. I'm sure there are many orgs with a much smaller CF that are bigger and more productive than Chicago.

The 15k to 30k range you mentioned sounds about right to me. I think most orgs are probably closer to those numbers than 100k.

It's true that for the most part we're left with the smaller orgs. But size of the org/field isn't the only reason orgs got done sooner than the ones still struggling to open. There's also the whale factor, i.e. how many whales are in the local field and how big are they. Some smaller orgs got done just because they had enough big donors to push it through. I think Denver and Dallas are good examples of that. Small orgs with enough big donors to open as ideal relatively early in the ideal org push.

 

[Reyne Mayer]

I'd guess you're right with Chicago CF absorbing other CFs. I'm actually a little surprised their CF is that big, you'd think they'd be one of the bigger orgs with a CF that size. It goes to show how meaningless and useless CF actually is. I'm sure there are many orgs with a much smaller CF that are bigger and more productive than Chicago.

maybe Chicago was once much bigger than it is now, i've noticed with other orgs like Boston there is sometimes a history of their once having been pretty successful, going bust and then being left below average.

like you mention with whales, there are so many local factors that can significant affect scn in an area -- partly because it's so small, just a couple of people can make a big difference (including negatively).

Chicago and Urbana-Champlain might have built up an inordinate number of student contacts due to their proximity to large universities, and perhaps because they put a lot of effort into campus recruiting. i've noticed that a lot of orgs and missions were once located close to campuses, back when students were a major source of new recruits, but have moved away as those recruiting prospects dried up; even Austin that's stayed right across the street from the huge UT campus apparently has almost no success attracting students anymore.

 

[Enthetan]

maybe Chicago was once much bigger than it is now, i've noticed with other orgs like Boston there is sometimes a history of their once having been pretty successful, going bust and then being left below average.

like you mention with whales, there are so many local factors that can significant affect scn in an area -- partly because it's so small, just a couple of people can make a big difference (including negatively).

Chicago and Urbana-Champlain might have built up an inordinate number of student contacts due to their proximity to large universities, and perhaps because they put a lot of effort into campus recruiting. i've noticed that a lot of orgs and missions were once located close to campuses, back when students were a major source of new recruits, but have moved away as those recruiting prospects dried up; even Austin that's stayed right across the street from the huge UT campus apparently has almost no success attracting students anymore.

The problem with relying on young students (I got in as a college student) is that once there was computers and the Internet, they could look up all the bad shit about Scientology and run out the door.

This was a big issue back in the 90's, it's much worse now.

 

[onceuponatime]

maybe Chicago was once much bigger than it is now, i've noticed with other orgs like Boston there is sometimes a history of their once having been pretty successful, going bust and then being left below average.

like you mention with whales, there are so many local factors that can significant affect scn in an area -- partly because it's so small, just a couple of people can make a big difference (including negatively).

Chicago and Urbana-Champlain might have built up an inordinate number of student contacts due to their proximity to large universities, and perhaps because they put a lot of effort into campus recruiting. i've noticed that a lot of orgs and missions were once located close to campuses, back when students were a major source of new recruits, but have moved away as those recruiting prospects dried up; even Austin that's stayed right across the street from the huge UT campus apparently has almost no success attracting students anymore.

That's very true, I've never heard of Chicago being that big, but almost all orgs were much bigger in the 80s and 90s. I would bet that Chicago did have a boom period many years ago.

 

[PirateAndBum]

Note that they say 100,000 files. That's not just CF that number also includes student files and ethics files, not sure if PC folders are involved as well.

I know DC org had well over 100K in CF, but it has been around for a long time

 

[Reyne Mayer]

The problem with relying on young students (I got in as a college student) is that once there was computers and the Internet, they could look up all the bad shit about Scientology and run out the door.

This was a big issue back in the 90's, it's much worse now.

as far as i can tell, student recruiting is now down to near zero. i think there are more fundamental factors at work than that, though the online airing of scn's dirty laundry seals its fate.

today's students have different interests, and they are not looking to 'tune in and drop out' like during scn's heyday. no cults are doing well on campus, and the other ones that were big back then are suffering the same fate as scn.

and scn is just blatantly outdated; it's literally about telexes rather than computers, and is based on a very antiquated model of the mind. any college students that are vulnerable, are going to be lured by something with a more current appeal.

 

[onceuponatime]

Note that they say 100,000 files. That's not just CF that number also includes student files and ethics files, not sure if PC folders are involved as well.

I know DC org had well over 100K in CF, but it has been around for a long time

Yeah, I noticed that. The majority of that 100K is probably CF but student files and ethics files could take up a decent chunk. I'm not sure if they'd allow public to handle PC folders like that. They might, but I'd bet they have to be approved beforehand.

 

[HelluvaHoax!]

Note that they say 100,000 files. That's not just CF that number also includes student files and ethics files, not sure if PC folders are involved as well.

I know DC org had well over 100K in CF, but it has been around for a long time

Scientologists have been feverishly working for the past 19 years to make all the Central Files folders ideal inside the ideal orgs. They have the pitifully magical belief that if they can somehow successfully put the pieces of paper inside those folders in chronological order--it will "make planetary clearing a reality".

Nobody has ever explained how rearranging pieces of paper in dusty, decades-old folders will do that. And the volunteer zombies doing the all that filing never think to ask. Or, perhaps they do wonder about it but are too afraid to ask.

And all that perfectly illustrates the essential core nature of the cult of Scientology. To wit, endlessly performed meaningless tasks and a triumphantly celebratory banner that reads:

"WE ARE SAVING THE UNIVERSE—
JUST THANK US AND DONATE!"​

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[Reyne Mayer]

endlessly performed meaningless tasks

i see it more in the vein of an arcane magickal ritual. i've seen it before including in people suffering from mental compulsions, an underlying belief that if everything is meticulously prepared, then some miraculous result can be produced.

there's also the odd reality that according to accounts, occasionally CF contacts do result in someone signing up for scn services after decades. i think of it like the creepy and bizarre pickup lines and strategies that some guys continually try, it must have worked once in a blue moon when they just happened to run across someone really desperate or something, and then they just keep on it forever....

 

[HelluvaHoax!]

i see it more in the vein of an arcane magickal ritual. i've seen it before including in people suffering from mental compulsions, an underlying belief that if everything is meticulously prepared, then some miraculous result can be produced.

there's also the odd reality that according to accounts, occasionally CF contacts do result in someone signing up for scn services after decades. i think of it like the creepy and bizarre pickup lines and strategies that some guys continually try, it must have worked once in a blue moon when they just happened to run across someone really desperate or something, and then they just keep on it forever....

LOL! Hilarious post.

But also extremely insightful! A deliciously deft blending of pathos & bathos.

.

 

[onceuponatime]

i see it more in the vein of an arcane magickal ritual. i've seen it before including in people suffering from mental compulsions, an underlying belief that if everything is meticulously prepared, then some miraculous result can be produced.

there's also the odd reality that according to accounts, occasionally CF contacts do result in someone signing up for scn services after decades. i think of it like the creepy and bizarre pickup lines and strategies that some guys continually try, it must have worked once in a blue moon when they just happened to run across someone really desperate or something, and then they just keep on it forever....

That's exactly what it is. If we put the org there exactly like LRH said it should be and if we do exactly what he said made St. Hill boom then we too will magically boom. They don't step back and analyze what made St. Hill boom and then try to copy that (they can't). They have to follow what LRH says to do with no critical thinking or analysis. If they spent five minutes analyzing things they'd see that St. Hill had many advantages that todays Class V orgs don't have and will never have, so what worked for St. Hill won't necessarily work for Class V orgs.

Also the bottom line is they are selling a crap product (Scientology). If you have a good/desirable product than almost anything you do will be successful. If your product is bad then no amount of marketing or organization will overcome that, maybe in the short term you can do some stuff and create a boom, but in the long term you'll fail.