Is Captain David Miscavige’s Claim of 6601 Sea Org Members Real? Or Are There Far Fewer?

[Bill]

<snip>
i doubt they'll actually close an org while DMis alive, but going back at least 5 years it seemed some were already running at a net loss and needing bailouts from int management to keep the doors open, and that trend can only increase.

Miscavige has closed a ton of orgs. He has gotten rid of almost all CCs by "combining" them with the nearest org. He has also merged day and foundation orgs.

 

[J. Swift]

Karen and I know many people who are still in but disaffected. They are under the radar. This gives us a basis for classification:

1. Active members on lines at Orgs
2. On the fence members who are undecided on whether to stay or blow given the punishments of leaving
3. Under the radar members who are done with Scn but pretend to be Scientologists to avoid Fair Game and losing their families
4. Bad SP's who speak out anonymously
5. Bad SP's who speak out publicly and don't give a F about OSA. They post here, Tony's blog, FB, interview with Leah
6. David Miscavige who has not picked up the cans in 25 years and is an unhandled No Case Gain

 

[Type4_PTS]

thanks for that anecdote, it gets back to the period i wish i understood better in the mid to late '80s, and into the early '90s. it sounds like at least in DC, they were still pretty big even after the 'mission massacre', though they draw from a large multi-state metro area and there's no other org for hundreds of miles to the South or West (but there were once missions in Maryland, Virginia and the Carolinas).

Of the 500+ people who showed up for the event, I don't know what percentage of them were active Scientologists. What happens before Scientology events, at least during my time in, was staff get put under a lot of pressure to get public Scientologists to come, and they don't care if the public are active or not. They just want bodies sitting in the chairs for the event so when they have to report their stats it will look good. When I was at Boston Org there were many people I saw come to the events but stopped coming for any services. Much of the Boston public was upset about something or other and would only show up occasionally at events. Some probably decided they want nothing more to do with Scientology but get so much pressure to come to the events they show up as they don't want to risk being disconnected from family or friends that are still in.

didn't they also have some huge gatherings around the time of the 'Portland Crusade'?

I didn't personally go to Portland but most of our staff at Boston Org did, and much of the staff from all over the country and elsewhere. Here's a video from that time:

i've visited what's left of the Boston org, stuck for maybe going on a decade now in a 'temporary' location on the upper story of a medium sized commercial/office building inconveniently far South of the city itself. it doesn't look like there's much left of it, i almost never see promo pieces from them and i can't find that they have any social media presence -- which seemed to have been made virtually mandatory a couple of years back. i may have run across a reference that 5 or 10 years ago they maybe got 100 people to an event, which would about fit.

I liked the building we were in on Beacon Street back when I was there. It overlooked the Charles River seperating Boston from Cambridge which was nice. There was no need to buy a new building. Some money could have been used to fix up that building. But it was alway big enough to support the amount of public that came in there when I was around.

thanks for that anecdote, it gets back to the period i wish i understood better in the mid to late '80s, and into the early '90s.

I was in from 1979 - 89. If you have any questions I'd be glad to answer any. I was on staff almost the entire time, working at Boston Org, Social Coordination International in Los Angeles, and for the SMI INT Expansion Office in Clearwater. Also, while I wasn't an official staff member, I wrote thousands of letters for Celebrity Center in Hollywood as well, working there for some months.

 

[Reyne Mayer]

Miscavige has closed a ton of orgs. He has gotten rid of almost all CCs by "combining" them with the nearest org. He has also merged day and foundation orgs.

thanks, i know that's technically true in some cases, but as a practical matter and as an outsider i look at it simply as that there's still an org in all the cities (or metro areas) that there used to be an org in. and it seems like even on the inside the distinction gets sort of blurred.

and there were still never more than a handful of independent CCs to begin with, were there?

 

[ILove2Lurk]

~ Scn Schadenfreude ~

Reminds me of a song I've sung now and then . . .

​

 

[Riddick]

if i recall correctly Tony Ortega has cited a figure down to around 3,500 sea org these days, and that seems more plausible to me. that's keeping in mind reports in recent years of thinning of the ranks, on top of attrition due to age and health.

one reason for a lower number making more sense is it would be more in keeping with the apparent size of the active membership, which i think by all indicators is more like 10-17 thousand, though maybe there are 35 thousand total who still hold IAS memberships and are in good standing.

the simple way i look at it is there are about 150 orgs worldwide and i see an average of around 40 people in photos of gatherings for events these days, which comes to 6,000, plus several thousand more in LA and Clearwater. conversely, to have 35,000 you'd have to have 5,000 served by advanced orgs in both LA and Clearwater, and then an average of 160 at each of the local orgs, which seems way high by any observable measure of any of those locations. i've been looking at the mission network and it appears so badly decimated that it can't count for much at all.

if there are 35 thousand, what orgs are they at? and if it's realistically more like 10-17 thousand, does that membership really support 6 thousand sea org, or less than a 3:1 ratio?

you can't trust the photos. I was once part of a photo shoot many years ago that made the scientology berkeley mission look busy and hussling for students to get into the mission. When I saw the actual photage presented at a DM live event, I was OMG, they totally pertrayed the berkely mission as active with membership. It wasn't true, there were only about 10 students, and they were already scientologtists, not new members, but the photos made it look like 100's and new members and the DM event said we are expanding, see, look at live footage.

Just like you can't trust "success stories".

My guess, a few thousand.

 

[HelluvaHoax!]

Miscavige has closed a ton of orgs. He has gotten rid of almost all CCs by "combining" them with the nearest org. He has also merged day and foundation orgs.

..

It's CULT TRIAGE time. They are picking thru the corpse-strewn battlefield after management shot, maimed or killed virtually all of their public with "friendly fire" like savaging their own mission network that brought them over 90% of their paying customers!

Imagine trying to run a business whose product costs approximately $650,000 per individual, while at the same time 99% of the customer reviews are horrendously bad. What married couple would intentionally IGNORE the cult's previous customers who are stridently yelling that it's a hoax, a fraud and a complete ripoff? Why would that couple ever decide to invest $1.3M (or more) in their "bridge" when they could instead buy a lovely house and have something for the rest of their lives other than betrayal, financial rape, losses and unbearable debt?

Honestly, in the information and internet age, how is it even possible to run a solvent con game like that? LOL


.

 

[Bill]

thanks, i know that's technically true in some cases, but as a practical matter and as an outsider i look at it simply as that there's still an org in all the cities (or metro areas) that there used to be an org in. and it seems like even on the inside the distinction gets sort of blurred.

and there were still never more than a handful of independent CCs to begin with, were there?

You are correct in that that's the perception that Miscavige is counting on. "Sure I closed a bunch of orgs ... but it was really just consolidation into those new buildings.

You have to compare it with what it was years ago. Every org was two: Day and Foundation. CCs were in addition to some of those. Every org had missions. Some of the cities with no orgs had missions - that were supposed to grow into orgs.

Under Miscavige, no separate D&F, no sub-CCs, no missions (or very, very few).

 

[cakemaker]

thanks, i know that's technically true in some cases, but as a practical matter and as an outsider i look at it simply as that there's still an org in all the cities (or metro areas) that there used to be an org in. and it seems like even on the inside the distinction gets sort of blurred.

and there were still never more than a handful of independent CCs to begin with, were there?

An outsider may group together the orgs in an area but internally, legally and administratively they are completely separate.
In fact, there is usually some bad blood between them as they try to rip off public (and staff) from each other.

It's very clearly spelled out in policy but Miscavige blatantly ignored those rules..

 

[Reyne Mayer]

you can't trust the photos. I was once part of a photo shoot many years ago that made the scientology berkeley mission look busy and hussling for students to get into the mission. When I saw the actual photage presented at a DM live event, I was OMG, they totally pertrayed the berkely mission as active with membership. It wasn't true, there were only about 10 students, and they were already scientologtists, not new members, but the photos made it look like 100's and new members and the DM event said we are expanding, see, look at live footage.

Just like you can't trust "success stories".

My guess, a few thousand.

i know that the high production value photos often use various tricks.

they also post more informal pictures of events like local org fundraisers, and sometimes use them in the promo pieces that end up posted in the Thursday Funnies over at Mike Rinder's. they seem like a fairly good gauge of the real active membership of the orgs, and fit with other information.

and i never see picture like this with more than about 4 dozen people in them, and usually more around 3 dozen or even 2. i figure this has to be fairly representative of the diehards, and i note that not surprisingly they skew towards being boomer aged:

(Hawaii)

 

[ILove2Lurk]

At one time, Hubbard had promoted his work as "THE science of the mind" and deconstruction
of the source of the material universe. THE science. On par with the greats of history like
Isaac Newton or Albert Einstein. And this "science thing" was probably these folks entrée into
the subject. I guess somehow they don't realize what a "total tech degrade" it is to promote
"THE science" by dressing up in superhero costumes or as circus clowns.

Obviously, they don't have a clue, which is frightening. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

And Miscavige is not putting a stop to this silliness because all he cares about is that these
events keep the money rolling in. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[marra]

In the late 1990s I was told by a senior IAS official "in confidence" that the total IAS worldwide membership figure at that time was 68,000. This was the official number of scientologists still "in good standing" including Sea Org, Staff and public. Of course many of those could have been "under the radar" and not actually still in but not officially out. So all we can say is that 68,000 was the maximum number at that time.

 

[HelluvaHoax!]

.

.

Cringey, creepy, culty Ideal Org fundraisers!
Those are Ideal adults saving the planet?
Guys—what's with the clown costumes?!
WHY SO INSOUCIANT?.
.

NEARLY IDEAL
(there's something just slightly---off)

IDEAL

I approve of this message

.​

 

[Reyne Mayer]

In the late 1990s I was told by a senior IAS official "in confidence" that the total IAS worldwide membership figure at that time was 68,000. This was the official number of scientologists still "in good standing" including Sea Org, Staff and public. Of course many of those could have been "under the radar" and not actually still in but not officially out. So all we can say is that 68,000 was the maximum number at that time.

that seems plausible for back then, and that it's down to about half of that now -- officially, the number of those who are actually active is smaller yet.

i assume that there's a fair bit of a sort of inertia in that a lot of people got talked into buying lifetime memberships, and are so still on the books even if they haven't walked into a mission or org in years, or decades. and i wouldn't quite call people like that UTRs, they maybe be officially in but aren't an active member of an org (some may be hundreds of miles away from one).

plus it seems to me that there's that other group i referred to as hangers-on, who like to come in to an org for an event like LRH's birthday to see old friends, reminisce and catch up, and who aren't on their way out officially but will never really be all in again, either. the org i knew the most about was in the sort of area where there had been a lot of young boomers doing the things that were trendy in the 60s, 70s and into the 80s, including scientology, but had largely gone other directions in their life since; what have people seen of that phenomenon elsewhere?

 

[HelluvaHoax!]

that seems plausible for back then, and that it's down to about half of that now -- officially, the number of those who are actually active is smaller yet.

i assume that there's a fair bit of a sort of inertia in that a lot of people got talked into buying lifetime memberships, and are so still on the books even if they haven't walked into a mission or org in years, or decades. and i wouldn't quite call people like that UTRs, they maybe be officially in but aren't an active member of an org (some may be hundreds of miles away from one).

plus it seems to me that there's that other group i referred to as hangers-on, who like to come in to an org for an event like LRH's birthday to see old friends, reminisce and catch up, and who aren't on their way out officially but will never really be all in again, either. the org i knew the most about was in the sort of area where there had been a lot of young boomers doing the things that were trendy in the 60s, 70s and into the 80s, including scientology, but had largely gone other directions in their life since; what have people seen of that phenomenon elsewhere?

That describes well the occasional 'SWELL" of membership numbers around that period because there was a huge push to sigh up yearly or lifetime memberships when the old "HASI Memberships" were unceremoniously canceled. So much for "lifetime" guarantees.

Scientology has always been prone to creating gold-rush stampedes when releasing a new miraculous product, service or special discount deal. Scientologists respond well to the barks of their herd dogs in management. It was like that so often, but to cite one example, it would be the release of the all-new-and-improved BT-banishing NOTS (OT IV, V, VI, VII). Flag was flooded with F/Ning FCCIs! Then gradually "the thrill was gone" and so were all the PCs who did the rundown and didn't get their expected magic powers. But, it was a spectacular run for Scientology's gurus that netted them hundreds of millions of dollars.

This is essentially why Scientology specializes in the "WAVE THEORY" of having regularly scheduled "major breakthroughs". The secret is that each breakthrough only breaks thru to the next breakthrough. The breakthroughs continue for each Scientology preclear until they eventually—break, either financially, mentally, or both.

.

 

[onceuponatime]

okay, that's good to clarify, i tend to focus more on what seem to be the real active members, than what they could draw for an 'all hands' type event a couple of times a year. at least at the org i got to kind of know, it seemed like the rarely seen half was a lot of what i call hangers-on, people who had been somewhat active long ago and especially when it was a bit cheaper to do, who liked to show up and see old friends but probably wouldn't do much more than maybe a correspondence course -- though i think we see a few of those old timers now going 'clear' after getting an inheritance or something.

most orgs seem to be around 12-18 staff now, i really doubt many other than Tampa and maybe San Francisco have more than that.

and i'm working on a count of the missions that i'll post more about when i'm further along, but it looks like about 2/3 of them have closed in the last decade. i think often it's just because the old mission holders are getting ready to retire, which was sort of the case with old Clearwater mission (which i watched shut down when i lived there), and can no longer carry what is probably now actually a financial drain. the scientology locator lists just over 30 of them, and i know that at least one has actually been closed since before even the pandemic; only a handful still have a real public-facing location and a lot of the rest are probably little more than mail drops.

i doubt they'll actually close an org while DMis alive, but going back at least 5 years it seemed some were already running at a net loss and needing bailouts from int management to keep the doors open, and that trend can only increase.

Are you counting D & F as separate in your 12-18 count? Or 12-18 on Day and 12-18 on Foundation? I think it really depends on the org. Some will have 10ish staff D & F combined, some will still have 50 or more. There are also orgs that are lopsided, i.e. they'll have D or F with a bunch of staff and then the opposite will have like 5. It's just hard to get an accurate count because population, etc. doesn't really have much impact on it.

I agree that orgs probably won't close, I'd guess we're going to see more and more SO members manning Class V orgs. A lot of missions have been closing though.

Miscavige has closed a ton of orgs. He has gotten rid of almost all CCs by "combining" them with the nearest org. He has also merged day and foundation orgs.

CCs being combined, yes that has happened. D & F being merged, no this is not happening. Not outside of the SO orgs as far as I know. All the "ideal orgs" have a D & F.

You are correct in that that's the perception that Miscavige is counting on. "Sure I closed a bunch of orgs ... but it was really just consolidation into those new buildings.

You have to compare it with what it was years ago. Every org was two: Day and Foundation. CCs were in addition to some of those. Every org had missions. Some of the cities with no orgs had missions - that were supposed to grow into orgs.

Under Miscavige, no separate D&F, no sub-CCs, no missions (or very, very few).

The big loss has been missions. Yes, CCs got combined but the whole separate CC network never really made any sense. Orgs still very much operate as D & F. Combining them would actually make sense, so you can count on Scientology not to do it.

 

[onceuponatime]

In the late 1990s I was told by a senior IAS official "in confidence" that the total IAS worldwide membership figure at that time was 68,000. This was the official number of scientologists still "in good standing" including Sea Org, Staff and public. Of course many of those could have been "under the radar" and not actually still in but not officially out. So all we can say is that 68,000 was the maximum number at that time.

Yeah, this sounds about right to me. Kinda crazy how many they've lost over the years. I'm sure they would do anything to have 70Kish active members these days.

 

[Bill]

<snip>
CCs being combined, yes that has happened. D & F being merged, no this is not happening. Not outside of the SO orgs as far as I know. All the "ideal orgs" have a D & F.
<snip>

Well, I'm not up do date on all the latest but, while I'm sure the new "ideal" orgs are open days and evenings, are they separate staff? Separate org boards? Separate finances? If not, then they are not separate orgs, not Day and Foundation.

 

[onceuponatime]

Well, I'm not up do date on all the latest but, while I'm sure the new "ideal" orgs are open days and evenings, are they separate staff? Separate org boards? Separate finances? If not, then they are not separate orgs, not Day and Foundation.

Yes, separate staff, separate org boards, everything. You can look at the recent leak from NY org for confirmation.

But as far as the birthday game goes, everything gets reported as one org. I.e. you don't have Tampa Day and Tampa Foundation, it's just Tampa. What they do is still report everything separately but then add up the points and put them together. Tampa Day will make 30 points and then Tampa Foundation will make 35, it gets reported as Tampa made 65.

They really are separate orgs though. Different staff members, different FPs, etc.

 

[Riddick]

i know that the high production value photos often use various tricks.

they also post more informal pictures of events like local org fundraisers, and sometimes use them in the promo pieces that end up posted in the Thursday Funnies over at Mike Rinder's. they seem like a fairly good gauge of the real active membership of the orgs, and fit with other information.

and i never see picture like this with more than about 4 dozen people in them, and usually more around 3 dozen or even 2. i figure this has to be fairly representative of the diehards, and i note that not surprisingly they skew towards being boomer aged:

(Hawaii)

yep, that's a good obversation.

You'll have to excuse some of my posts with spelling errors, I can't see the computer screen like I used to, and spell check doesn't work quite right since I use Bing, I think, and not Google.

Just as some side info, I've been getting some Letters Out from the local org and Mission I attended many moons ago befor the pandemic Covid. I cringe and toss them, poor souls thinking letters out = income when it comes to scientology. I've written thousands and thousands of letters out to CF when I was on staff and it was mostly a ghost town. Occassionally I'd make a 2 dollar book comission, at the time, it was a godsend to receive 2 bucks, that went for food, but at the time, it was like write more letters out = income, maybe true.. There is a whole rhetoric policy on it in the OEC's.

Edit, something you probably don;t know, when a staff member writes a letter out, included in the personal letter is a nice glossy promo piece of a book to read. That's why we thought if we wrote more letters out, included a book promo piece, we'd make a book commission plus get somebody to get involved. If they got involved, then if they buy some service, then more income for the org or mission or staff pay. After awhile of this while on staff, it can get old real fast, as no income = no pay, and each org or mission is on their own for staff pay, it doesn;t come from the Sea Org.. Some staff are able to put up with with it to a degree, they either blow, breaking point, or if they have a spouse that can support them stick around until their contract is up, that's a whole other story.

I'd bet people in photo people fall into what I just described, the old timers who still think one can go clear, or OT, or help the planet.