Scientology growth spearheaded by... Albuquerque?!

[Karakorum]

Got this from Tony Ortega.

Results from the "sprint game". Puerto Rico no#1, Albuquerque no#2! What?!

If anyone needed proof that the winners do that through stat-falsifying an stat-pushing, this must be it. Albuquerque leads the way!

I saw that and this music popped into my head:

For those not familiar with west US - Albuquerque was always a small, failing, frequently a "0 stat goose-egg" org. If someone asked me about the least likely places in the US for Scientology to expand - Albuquerque would be easily in my top 5.

And yet here it is:

 

[onceuponatime]

This is about ideal org fundraising. A lot of the bigger fields/orgs, that have it more together, are already done. I wouldn't be surprised if Puerto Rico (probably Flag) and Albuquerque (probably WUS in some capacity) were leading the way.

I guess these are the only 9 orgs left in the USA? All of them are tiny. The only two that I recall being any size at all (i.e. 10+ staff, not actually big) are St. Louis and Boston. That was also years ago, wouldn't be surprised if they have collapsed to almost nothing by now. The fundraising for these orgs is going to have to be handled by other areas. No way are they ever going to get it done themselves. They just don't have the field or the money. And good luck trying to get these orgs manned. I see more S.O. class V orgs in the future.

I'd be embarrassed if I were Boston staff. Imagine being beat by Albuquerque.

 

[Reyne Mayer]

This is about ideal org fundraising. A lot of the bigger fields/orgs, that have it more together, are already done. I wouldn't be surprised if Puerto Rico (probably Flag) and Albuquerque (probably WUS in some capacity) were leading the way.

from what i knew of one org i had an inside connection to a number of years ago, that was exactly the case, they were in a flourishing good ,sized metro area, had several whales/families, and had raised they money they needed when the big push was on a decade or more ago, and got their building done in fairly short order.

the ones that are left seem to be the infamously small and struggling laggards. except i've seen accounts that St. Louis and maybe at least one other org like Boston may have actually raised most or all of the money needed, but had it raided for something like an international 'emergency' -- and presumably then never had it returned, as if they were expected to start from scratch again. if anyone knows anything more about things like that, i'd love to hear.

also, those two and Albuquerque as well have also been trying to sell off buildings they bought that apparently didn't meet DM's increased size requirements. but it looks like Boston finally secured a deal that cleared them a good bit of profit (they were lucky enough to buy in an area that became popular in the decade or more since, unlike the other two) and yet they still done seem to have started work on another building they bought since, so something strange must be going on with international management (openings of the buildings in Chicago and Austin that were completed around the time the pandemic started are also stalled).

 

[Karakorum]

I guess these are the only 9 orgs left in the USA? All of them are tiny. The only two that I recall being any size at all (i.e. 10+ staff, not actually big) are St. Louis and Boston. That was also years ago, wouldn't be surprised if they have collapsed to almost nothing by now.

From how you worded it, I guess LA org, Pasadena, Silicon Valley and San Fran don't have even 10 staff? Amazing.

I'd be embarrassed if I were Boston staff. Imagine being beat by Albuquerque.

Yeah that. We used to joke that people who are so annoying that nobody can work with them would get sent to Anchorage or Albuquerque.

Another joke of that sort was:
Dude 1: "Hey, I'm gonna press to have Joe sent to Taiwan."
Dude 2: "Why Taiwan?"
Dude 1: "Because Joe doesn't speak a word of Chinese. So nobody will have to deal with his BS there."

from what i knew of one org i had an inside connection to a number of years ago, that was exactly the case, they were in a flourishing good ,sized metro area, had several whales/families, and had raised they money they needed when the big push was on a decade or more ago, and got their building done in fairly short order.

the ones that are left seem to be the infamously small and struggling laggards. except i've seen accounts that St. Louis and maybe at least one other org like Boston may have actually raised most or all of the money needed, but had it raided for something like an international 'emergency' -- and presumably then never had it returned, as if they were expected to start from scratch again. if anyone knows anything more about things like that, i'd love to hear.

also, those two and Albuquerque as well have also been trying to sell off buildings they bought that apparently didn't meet DM's increased size requirements. but it looks like Boston finally secured a deal that cleared them a good bit of profit (they were lucky enough to buy in an area that became popular in the decade or more since, unlike the other two) and yet they still done seem to have started work on another building they bought since, so something strange must be going on with international management (openings of the buildings in Chicago and Austin that were completed around the time the pandemic started are also stalled).

All of these are weird, "one step ahead, two steps back" stopgap measures. The underlying issue is really simple: No new members and dwindling numbers of old timers who have been mostly bled dry of cash anyway.

 

[onceuponatime]

from what i knew of one org i had an inside connection to a number of years ago, that was exactly the case, they were in a flourishing good ,sized metro area, had several whales/families, and had raised they money they needed when the big push was on a decade or more ago, and got their building done in fairly short order.

the ones that are left seem to be the infamously small and struggling laggards. except i've seen accounts that St. Louis and maybe at least one other org like Boston may have actually raised most or all of the money needed, but had it raided for something like an international 'emergency' -- and presumably then never had it returned, as if they were expected to start from scratch again. if anyone knows anything more about things like that, i'd love to hear.

also, those two and Albuquerque as well have also been trying to sell off buildings they bought that apparently didn't meet DM's increased size requirements. but it looks like Boston finally secured a deal that cleared them a good bit of profit (they were lucky enough to buy in an area that became popular in the decade or more since, unlike the other two) and yet they still done seem to have started work on another building they bought since, so something strange must be going on with international management (openings of the buildings in Chicago and Austin that were completed around the time the pandemic started are also stalled).

Yeah, I think at least a couple of these orgs that are left had already purchased buildings at some point but then they were deemed inadequate. I think this happened in St Louis and Boston? Boston, being a bigger market, should be able to sell their building pretty easily. Of course buying another building will be a lot more expensive than some place like Albuquerque, real estate is a lot more expensive in Boston I'm sure. It might be that the amount of money Boston needs to raise is more than they want to confront.

From how you worded it, I guess LA org, Pasadena, Silicon Valley and San Fran don't have even 10 staff? Amazing.


Yeah that. We used to joke that people who are so annoying that nobody can work with them would get sent to Anchorage or Albuquerque.

Another joke of that sort was:
Dude 1: "Hey, I'm gonna press to have Joe sent to Taiwan."
Dude 2: "Why Taiwan?"
Dude 1: "Because Joe doesn't speak a word of Chinese. So nobody will have to deal with his BS there."


All of these are weird, "one step ahead, two steps back" stopgap measures. The underlying issue is really simple: No new members and dwindling numbers of old timers who are mostly bled dried of cash anyway.

I think my wording was a bit off, I'm only talking about these 9 non-ideal orgs.

From what I know LA org is still massive (obviously) and I've heard SFO has done a much better job than most orgs at retaining its staff. Tampa is also doing fine. Many of the other Class V orgs have lost a ton of staff. They've been bleeding staff for the last few years. Orgs that were 50-60+ staff might be down to 30 or less. The ones that were even smaller are probably barely open. I have some thoughts about why they've been losing so many staff so quickly, but really it was inevitable.

 

[Karakorum]

I think my wording was a bit off, I'm only talking about these 9 non-ideal orgs.

Ok got it. Was really amazed when I thought you meant every single org in the country.

I've heard SFO has done a much better job than most orgs at retaining its staff.

SFO, at least back in my day, always had several high profile and wealthy members who tended to treat it as a personal "pet project". I guess maybe that's why it is in relatively better shape than most.

 

[Chuck J.]

Maybe Abq. found a way to tap into that Walter White Breaking Bad storage unit?

 

[Reyne Mayer]

From what I know LA org is still massive (obviously) and I've heard SFO has done a much better job than most orgs at retaining its staff. Tampa is also doing fine. Many of the other Class V orgs have lost a ton of staff. They've been bleeding staff for the last few years. Orgs that were 50-60+ staff might be down to 30 or less. The ones that were even smaller are probably barely open. I have some thoughts about why they've been losing so many staff so quickly, but really it was inevitable.

one thing i've had trouble figuring out, or even getting information on, is how many staff orgs really have or had -- and in particular whether some of them aren't really part-time or volunteer.

the org i knew about 8 to 10 years ago had 25 to 30 staff on its org board (which i'm not sure were all full-time) for 50 to 60 active members, which is still of course a ridiculously high ratio. i get the impression from another org i've seen pretty detailed insider information on that it runs about 1:3, but it's getting down to around 10 to 12 staff (about what i believe Orlando had before going 'ideal', and so maybe what they're back to) for a lot of the orgs that only have 2-4 dozen really active members left anymore.

so i'd guess that only a few of the very biggest orgs like you cite might even have 30 staff left at this point. this is the biggest picture i've seen out of Tampa in recent years, from 2019, with a head count just over 30:



i know that Tampa (which might have more staff than shown in the picture) has been something of an exception because it gets extra business from being in the shadow of Flag -- except they may now be suffering the problem that the Belleair mission reportedly is, having their customers poach by a Flag now desperate for business and increasingly offering lower-level services.

 

[Karakorum]

so i'd guess that only a few of the very biggest orgs like you cite might even have 30 staff left at this point. this is the biggest picture i've seen out of Tampa in recent years, from 2019, with a head count just over 30:

To be fair, the photo seems to suggest that they are relatively young. I was thinking that some of the smaller orgs might be facing a generational challenge - the auditors being in the late 60s and 70s, with the rest of the staff not being that much younger.

Or did they resolve that by filling positions with 2nd gens?

 

[onceuponatime]

one thing i've had trouble figuring out, or even getting information on, is how many staff orgs really have or had -- and in particular whether some of them aren't really part-time or volunteer.

the org i knew about 8 to 10 years ago had 25 to 30 staff on its org board (which i'm not sure were all full-time) for 50 to 60 active members, which is still of course a ridiculously high ratio. i get the impression from another org i've seen pretty detailed insider information on that it runs about 1:3, but it's getting down to around 10 to 12 staff (about what i believe Orlando had before going 'ideal', and so maybe what they're back to) for a lot of the orgs that only have 2-4 dozen really active members left anymore.

so i'd guess that only a few of the very biggest orgs like you cite might even have 30 staff left at this point. this is the biggest picture i've seen out of Tampa in recent years, from 2019, with a head count just over 30:

View attachment 15717

i know that Tampa (which might have more staff than shown in the picture) has been something of an exception because it gets extra business from being in the shadow of Flag -- except they may now be suffering the problem that the Belleair mission reportedly is, having their customers poach by a Flag now desperate for business and increasingly offering lower-level services.

Tampa for sure has more than 30 staff. They are probably the biggest Class V org in the US, wouldn't be surprised if they were one of the biggest Class V orgs in the world. You might ask, what's different about Tampa? The answer is nothing is different about them as an org, it's just their location. They lose staff like all other orgs, the difference is that when other Class V orgs lose a staff member they realistically have no one who is going to replace that staff member. Tampa has a steady stream of Scientologists moving to the area. When other orgs lose a staff member or public because they are moving, usually it's because they moved to CW.

Flag also directly runs Tampa so they have a vested interest in feeding some public to Tampa. A long time ago Flag used to basically service everyone in the area and Tampa was a smaller org. Then things changed with the ideal org program and all of a sudden Flag was feeding them public instead of trying to service all of the local field.

I'd love to see hard staff numbers, obviously that's something that Scientology will never release. I think the general Scientology public would be shocked at how small many Class V orgs are, even ones that "went ideal" not too long ago. It used to be that there were at least a few orgs in the US that I would consider decently staffed, we're talking in the 50-60+ range here, not 100s. Now the only orgs I can think of that still have that many staff are SFO and Tampa (not counting the SO orgs), maybe some other California orgs, I don't know as much about them.

To be fair, the photo seems to suggest that they are relatively young. I was thinking that some of the smaller orgs might be facing a generational challenge - the auditors being in the late 60s and 70s, with the rest of the staff not being that much younger.

Or did they resolve that by filling positions with 2nd gens?

They've been heavily recruiting 2nd gens for at least the last 20 years. There was a big push in 2013 with GAT II, I think GAT II was mainly 2nd gen. They're finding that many of the 2nd gen aren't willing to throw their whole life away and just be a lifetime staff member. So they might do one contract but they won't stick around for 30+ years like some of the old timers. They see what it's like on staff and predictably decide they want to do something else.

I've said it before, but as the old timers continue to age there just aren't enough 2nd gen people to fill the staff slots. They really have a crisis on their hands and it will only get worse over time.

 

[Karakorum]

There was a big push in 2013 with GAT II, I think GAT II was mainly 2nd gen.

Thanks for the explanation. I was already out by 2013, so that is news to me.

 

[Reyne Mayer]

To be fair, the photo seems to suggest that they are relatively young. I was thinking that some of the smaller orgs might be facing a generational challenge - the auditors being in the late 60s and 70s, with the rest of the staff not being that much younger.

Or did they resolve that by filling positions with 2nd gens?

yeah, most org staff (and member event) pictures are predominantly weighted towards the gray-haired age range.

it looks to me like all of $cn has been facing a generational cliff, with the big bubble of baby boomer members recruited into all levels of the organization in the heyday, finally approaching the end of their time after being key players for the last half century. it's been most obvious with the many missions that have closed because long-time mission holders have aged out, but it's going on at all levels probably particularly including the sea org. i suspect the pandemic has accelerated and exacerbated that trend, both breaking their habit of coming into the org at a time when they're probably thinking about cutting back and retiring anyway, and even winnowing their numbers. also, due to things like heavy rates of smoking (which can knock about a decade off life expectancy) a lot of members (and presumably staff and sea org) seem to die early, in their 60s and 70s.

on the other hand, we also see some aging boomers finally going 'clear' or joining staff, because some are at the point in their lives to finally have the time and resources to do so.

i don't see a lot of 2nd gens on staff, so i suspect they aren't being recruited in numbers anywhere near large enough to replace the old-timers (plus, the orgs whose customer base is shrinking as well, don't need to keep up the same staff levels), and maybe also suffer from the problem they seem to be infamous for when it comes to the sea org, that even when recruited they then don't last long.

 

[Reyne Mayer]

I'd love to see hard staff numbers, obviously that's something that Scientology will never release. I think the general Scientology public would be shocked at how small many Class V orgs are, even ones that "went ideal" not too long ago. It used to be that there were at least a few orgs in the US that I would consider decently staffed, we're talking in the 50-60+ range here, not 100s. Now the only orgs I can think of that still have that many staff are SFO and Tampa (not counting the SO orgs), maybe some other California orgs, I don't know as much about them.

yeah, i really wish we'd at least get a defector come out from a high enough level that they know what the numbers were at some recent point. or even someone who could nail down exactly what is going on at a typical mid sized or larger org, like actual full time staff counts, auditing hours, finances, etc.

i never see anything out of SFO like even promo pieces or graduation/certificate pictures, which is generally a sign of an org that is struggling just to survive. my suspicion is that like the org that i knew a lot about, it's in the type of hip area that went big for scientology back when it was the 'now religion', but where these days people are plugged in to all the critical media (Going Clear, etc.) and drawn to things like yoga and meditation, or whatever are the latest practices and groups. really, in the 2020s are you going to try to tell people in SF they can't even go with their friends, neighbors and coworkers to a class at the studio down the street (i find at least 5 within 5 blocks of the org, for example), because half a century ago LRH forbid all such things as 'other practices'?

i checked their social media, which they keep up with fairly well, and this is the most staff and members shown in any photo (from 2 years ago):

 

[Karakorum]

i don't see a lot of 2nd gens on staff, so i suspect they aren't being recruited in numbers anywhere near large enough to replace the old-timers (plus, the orgs whose customer base is shrinking as well, don't need to keep up the same staff levels), and maybe also suffer from the problem they seem to be infamous for when it comes to the sea org, that even when recruited they then don't last long.

Well, the general rule I observed is that 1st gens come and join for the tech. The 2nd gens mostly come and join for the community and the organization. For 1st gens it is an adventure and a mission, for 2nd gens it is usually a career and lifestyle.

 

[Karakorum]

yeah, i really wish we'd at least get a defector come out from a high enough level that they know what the numbers were at some recent point. or even someone who could nail down exactly what is going on at a typical mid sized or larger org, like actual full time staff counts, auditing hours, finances, etc.

i never see anything out of SFO like even promo pieces or graduation/certificate pictures, which is generally a sign of an org that is struggling just to survive. my suspicion is that like the org that i knew a lot about, it's in the type of hip area that went big for scientology back when it was the 'now religion', but where these days people are plugged in to all the critical media (Going Clear, etc.) and drawn to things like yoga and meditation, or whatever are the latest practices and groups. really, in the 2020s are you going to try to tell people in SF they can't even go with their friends, neighbors and coworkers to a class at the studio down the street (i find at least 5 within 5 blocks of the org, for example), because half a century ago LRH forbid all such things as 'other practices'?

i checked their social media, which they keep up with fairly well, and this is the most staff and members shown in any photo (from 2 years ago):

View attachment 15720

Wow things have changed since the mid 2000s. Just 12 people, but now they actually have some racial diversity there.

Also the photo appears quite... messy. Doesn't feel like those choreographed, posed, spit-and-nail-polish, women-in-high-heels-and-flashy-makeup promo photos that I was used to.

 

[Reyne Mayer]

Wow things have changed since the mid 2000s. Just 12 people, but now they actually have some racial diversity there.

Also the photo appears quite... messy. Doesn't feel like those choreographed, posed, spit-and-nail-polish, women-in-high-heels-and-flashy-makeup promo photos that I was used to.

i don't know that's all their staff, but if they were as big as 50 or more, i'd at least expect to find a pic of more like 25 (one shift), graduation pics showing a fair number of people, etc. and there's none of that.

here's a pic more along those lines, that the posted to both FB and Instagram (they have/had a Twitter account that has been dormant since 2017):

 

[onceuponatime]

yeah, most org staff (and member event) pictures are predominantly weighted towards the gray-haired age range.

it looks to me like all of $cn has been facing a generational cliff, with the big bubble of baby boomer members recruited into all levels of the organization in the heyday, finally approaching the end of their time after being key players for the last half century. it's been most obvious with the many missions that have closed because long-time mission holders have aged out, but it's going on at all levels probably particularly including the sea org. i suspect the pandemic has accelerated and exacerbated that trend, both breaking their habit of coming into the org at a time when they're probably thinking about cutting back and retiring anyway, and even winnowing their numbers. also, due to things like heavy rates of smoking (which can knock about a decade off life expectancy) a lot of members (and presumably staff and sea org) seem to die early, in their 60s and 70s.

on the other hand, we also see some aging boomers finally going 'clear' or joining staff, because some are at the point in their lives to finally have the time and resources to do so.

i don't see a lot of 2nd gens on staff, so i suspect they aren't being recruited in numbers anywhere near large enough to replace the old-timers (plus, the orgs whose customer base is shrinking as well, don't need to keep up the same staff levels), and maybe also suffer from the problem they seem to be infamous for when it comes to the sea org, that even when recruited they then don't last long.

The generational cliff is very real for Scientology and is not something they know how to or can solve. As I said, the next 10-20 years are going to be rough for them.

2nd gen do get recruited quite a bit. Have you seen promo from Tampa? Tons of 2nd gen staff. The difference is they don't stick around. Not saying they don't complete their contract (probably most do) but after that contract they're out. This is different from the old-timers who have decided that staff/SO is their life. This is a real problem for scientology as they need people who are willing to put up with shit hours, shit pay and shit working conditions. By and large the 2nd gens might do that for a bit then decide nope, they want a life.

All of this ontop of the fact that many 2nd gen never became scientologists at all. I don't know percentage wise but I wouldn't be shocked to find out that as many as 50% of the 2nd gen never had real involvement with the church.

The pandemic has sped things up for sure. They were headed for a crash all along but the pandemic accelerated it.

yeah, i really wish we'd at least get a defector come out from a high enough level that they know what the numbers were at some recent point. or even someone who could nail down exactly what is going on at a typical mid sized or larger org, like actual full time staff counts, auditing hours, finances, etc.

i never see anything out of SFO like even promo pieces or graduation/certificate pictures, which is generally a sign of an org that is struggling just to survive. my suspicion is that like the org that i knew a lot about, it's in the type of hip area that went big for scientology back when it was the 'now religion', but where these days people are plugged in to all the critical media (Going Clear, etc.) and drawn to things like yoga and meditation, or whatever are the latest practices and groups. really, in the 2020s are you going to try to tell people in SF they can't even go with their friends, neighbors and coworkers to a class at the studio down the street (i find at least 5 within 5 blocks of the org, for example), because half a century ago LRH forbid all such things as 'other practices'?

i checked their social media, which they keep up with fairly well, and this is the most staff and members shown in any photo (from 2 years ago):

View attachment 15720

We probably have some defectors like that already. Maybe they aren't active on the forums yet or just want to stay under the radar. I'm sure there are some that are at least reading these forums or Tony's site, etc.

SFO is for sure one of the biggest orgs left in the US. I don't really know the reasons why, I suspect they have some wealthy members more or less supporting it/the staff.

One thing I will say is there is this new admin training program going on at flag. The minimum number of people you have to send is pretty high and the quals to get approved for it are also strict. The only org that I know of that has sent its full team to flag is SFO. Most other orgs (even ones that used to be a decent size) aren't even close to getting a team named much less approved. SFO has already sent everyone to flag, approved, everything.

Well, the general rule I observed is that 1st gens come and join for the tech. The 2nd gens mostly come and join for the community and the organization. For 1st gens it is an adventure and a mission, for 2nd gens it is usually a career and lifestyle.

Yes, I agree with this. 1st gens treat it like it's their mission in life. So they are willing to put up with whatever and do whatever. 2nd gen, not as much. They might initially get fired up and come onboard but then faced with staff conditions and the prospect of it being the rest of their life... They understandably decide it isn't for them.

 

[Reyne Mayer]

The generational cliff is very real for Scientology and is not something they know how to or can solve. As I said, the next 10-20 years are going to be rough for them.

2nd gen do get recruited quite a bit. Have you seen promo from Tampa? Tons of 2nd gen staff. The difference is they don't stick around. Not saying they don't complete their contract (probably most do) but after that contract they're out. This is different from the old-timers who have decided that staff/SO is their life. This is a real problem for scientology as they need people who are willing to put up with shit hours, shit pay and shit working conditions. By and large the 2nd gens might do that for a bit then decide nope, they want a life.

thanks for the info about Tampa in particular, that gives me some additional insight into what's going on. though given that it appears Belleair is being poached now as Flat is promoting more lower level services, i still wonder if the situation at Tampa might be going downhill.

looking at Tampa's social media feed what i see are occasional postings of individual enrollments or completions, and those largely of foreigners and/or graying old-timers. also notable there and elsewhere in the last year or two are more staff going clear or doing OT levels, which in the cruel world of the co$ i assume means they have been left with virtually nothing better to do and a lack of paying customers.

and yeah, i'm sure some people with insider knowledge have to have left -- but they're still not showing up for us, for whatever reason. i suspect any real high-up ones with detailed knowledge of the big picture are now being given 'retirement' packages with NDAs and gag clauses, sort of like what DM figured out belatedly to do with Debbie Cook.

 

[Karakorum]

i don't know that's all their staff, but if they were as big as 50 or more, i'd at least expect to find a pic of more like 25 (one shift), graduation pics showing a fair number of people, etc. and there's none of that.

here's a pic more along those lines, that the posted to both FB and Instagram (they have/had a Twitter account that has been dormant since 2017):

View attachment 15723

Yeah that feels more like what I remember. I think scn still has some propaganda photo like this with me in it

and yeah, i'm sure some people with insider knowledge have to have left -- but they're still not showing up for us, for whatever reason. i suspect any real high-up ones with detailed knowledge of the big picture are now being given 'retirement' packages with NDAs and gag clauses, sort of like what DM figured out belatedly to do with Debbie Cook.

I'm pretty sure that is what happened. Even things like Marty.

Which actually brings me to the one thing I really do admire about Mike Rinder. I'm sure they must have offered him a huge sum if he would just fade away into the background shadows. And he didn't take it!

I wonder, if this is part of his personality that landed him as the head OSA in the first place? Did they take him precisely because he had that dogged "bite-and-hold" gator tenacity in him? That's one thing they were looking for in prospective inv members. I imagine it might have been the same with OSA. Maybe that's part of the common B2 OSA dna?

Guess that with Mike, they never figured they would end up the ones being bitten.

 

[Chuck J.]

Looking at these org pics I wonder if they're not above just pulling random public out of the org for photo's? "Hey, we got a shoot, who can we use that's presentable enough?"

Is that something org's do? To bolster the (apparent) number of staff?